Multipolarity white paper

Title: Political Economy Theory of Multipolarity:Mercantiles, Regents, and Civilians    By Project economy of civilization & collaborators

1. Executive Summary

The modern world is witnessing the gradual dismantling of Cold War binaries, leading to the rise of a multipolar international system. This report introduces a new framework comprising three dynamic actor categories: Mercantiles, Regents, and Civilians. These roles reflect evolving global interests based on trade domination, territorial influence, and socio-political fluidity, respectively. This theory explores how these categories interact, form alliances, and compete in the global economic theater, while emphasizing the significance of dynamic trade blocks as an essential tool for long-term global governance and conflict prevention.

In light of rising regional conflicts and historical cycles of collapse, multipolarity offers a model of balance and cooperation that could deter global-scale war and systemic breakdown. This framework presents itself as an alternative to the classic Cold War model, particularly when traditional alignments fail to achieve desired outcomes or lead to unintended consequences.

2. The Emergence of Mercantiles, Regents, and Civilians (Extended with Systemic Polarity)

In today’s global economic system, the three strategic identities—Mercantiles, Regents, and Civilians—offer a lens to interpret both competition and cooperation outside traditional Cold War binaries. These roles capture how entities relate to trade, sovereignty, and economic ethics.

2.1. Mercantiles

Actors focused on regulation, finance, trade flows, and market governance. These entities prioritize economic exchange and market fluidity, making their core identity centered around trade-driven alliances and global financial systems.

2.2. Regents

Power structures—both state and corporate—focused on territorial control, military strength, and geopolitical influence. Regents wield influence through geopolitics, often relying on economy of war or economic dominance through territorial control. Their influence is derived from defense expenditures, regional entanglements, and historical territorial behaviors.

2.3. Civilians

Non-agent collectives that arise from decentralization, advocating for global governance, ethical trade, and sustainable local economies. Civilians emphasize global cooperation and inclusive growth, distancing themselves from the geopolitics of the Mercantile and Regent blocs.

3. Systemic Distinction: Capitalist Poles of Influence

At the heart of multipolarity lies a crucial contrast between two extreme poles of capitalism, both of which dominate the Mercantile and Regent spheres:

3.1. Authoritarian Capitalism (Regent-Mercantile blend)

Often embodied by state-controlled economies, it merges central authority with capital accumulation. Trade policy, infrastructure development, and industrial output are centrally coordinated, and multinationals may operate under state supervision. This model emphasizes control over market fluidity, prioritizing stability, vertical power, and infrastructure-led influence.

3.2. Free-Market Neoliberal Capitalism (Mercantile-dominant)

Characterized by deregulation, privatization, and minimal state intervention, this model leads to wealth accumulation via financial markets, often at the expense of public infrastructure and democratic control. Its implementation has produced systemic issues such as:

• Rising public debt due to tax cuts and austerity,

• Erosion of public services,

• Capital flight and global wealth extraction, and

• Artificial dependency on offshore MNC supply chains, causing economic delocalization.

While both poles claim efficiency or modernization, they often externalize long-term costs—environmentally, socially, and politically.

4. The Role of Civilians: The Global Governance Layer

The Civilians emerge in this context not just as an alternative, but as a balancing necessity. Civilians advocate for global governance principles, emphasizing:

• Inclusive economic systems,

• Local self-sufficiency in resource allocation,

• Ethical trade that does not prioritize geopolitical control or expansion.

Civilians challenge both extremes by advocating for:

• Re-grounding economies in local value chains,

• Transparent governance in trade and policy,

• Collaborative ecosystems that transcend state or corporate dominance.

Civilians are pivotal in creating balance, meditating between Mercantiles' trade-driven logic and Regents' economy of war. Their focus is on global cooperation and sustainability, aiming to prevent conflict through inclusive decision-making and shared growth goals.

5. The Rise of Regents: Economy of War and Territorial Strategy

Regents, represented by nations or entities heavily invested in military power, defense expenditures, and geopolitical strategy, operate through territorial control and power projection. Their policies reflect a commitment to economy of war, where trade and commerce are often subjugated to the overarching goal of securing political and military dominance.

Examples of Regents include Russia, Iran, and Israel, whose strategies are deeply shaped by:

• High defense budgets and arms development,

• Military interventionism and entanglements in regional conflicts,

• A territorial expansion mindset aimed at consolidating power over key regions.

Regents rely on historical territorial behaviors and single-basket economy strategies, where defense, oil, and natural resources become critical to sustaining their political and military influence. These policies often lead to externalized conflict costs, as military entanglements strain both domestic and international resources.

The economy of war approach dictates that Regents are often in direct conflict with Mercantiles' trade-first models, especially in regions where natural resources, energy security, or critical infrastructure are involved. However, this creates vulnerabilities as the overstretching of resources in prolonged conflicts can destabilize their geopolitical standing, leading to economic decline or shifting alliances.

6. Dynamic Trade Blocks and Monetary Policy: A Multipolar World

In this multipolar environment, trade is increasingly conducted through dynamic trade blocks—alliances that offer flexibility to adapt to evolving global needs and challenges. These blocks shift from rigid regional alliances to intersected networks of cooperation that enable actors to pursue shared interests, reducing conflict and increasing stability.

Emerging trade blocks like BRICS, ASEAN, and others are gaining importance as they provide alternative trade routes and monetary policy frameworks that contrast with traditional Western-dominated systems. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is a key example of a trade bloc that challenges the traditional hegemony of the West by focusing on:

• Alternative financial institutions like the New Development Bank (NDB),

• Currency-based trade agreements to reduce dependency on Western financial systems.

As new regional and cross-border trade initiatives emerge, global governance structures are evolving. These include trade zones with partial regulatory compliance, allowing countries to selectively engage in economic cooperation based on common interests while maintaining sovereignty over key areas of national policy. This emerging trend of intersecting trade zones reflects the complex, multipolar world where economic cooperation increasingly takes precedence over territorial control or militaristic ambitions.

7. Thoughts: Navigating a Multipolar World

The future of global political economy is one of multipolarity, where the rise of Mercantiles, Regents, and Civilians reflects the complex interplay between trade-driven alliances, geopolitical tensions, and global governance. While Mercantiles dominate the world’s financial flows, Regents maintain their strategic territorial aims, and Civilians push for more inclusive governance that transcends both extreme poles.

The growing significance of dynamic trade blocks, alternative financial institutions, and multilateral agreements sets the stage for a multipolar world order. In this new landscape, the roles of Mercantiles and Regents will continue to evolve, and the role of Civilians will be central in ensuring that the global economy remains stable, sustainable, and resilient in the face of unpredictable global challenges.

The interplay of these three forces will create dynamic trade intersections that lead to a more balanced and sustainable global political economy.